---
title: Japan's Economy - Stocks, GDP and the End of Deflation
tags:  #economics  
author: [Mitz](https://docswell.com/user/jee54321)
site: [Docswell](https://www.docswell.com/)
thumbnail: https://bcdn.docswell.com/page/GEW1MM9Z72.jpg?width=480
description: 本資料では、株価は将来利益や投資家期待を反映し、GDPは国内生産を測るため、両者が異なる動きを示すことを解説しています。1998〜2021年の低インフレ期と2022年以降のインフレ回復、円安による海外収益の増大が企業利益を押し上げ、株価上昇につながりました。しかし、利益増が必ずしもGDP成長に直結しないことや、投資・賃金・生産性の伸びが今後の課題であることも指摘しています。日本がインフレと利益を長期的な経済成長へ転換できるかが問われています
published: October 25, 26
canonical: https://docswell.com/s/jee54321/K273X6-2026-10-25-104723
---
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26/10/25 @jee54321
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Key Question: Why did Japanese stocks
rise sharply while GDP grew more slowly?
Many commentators argue:
"Japan's stock market boomed, but the economy did not."
This presentation explains:
Why stocks and GDP are different
Why inflation matters
How globalisation changed Japan
Whether Japan is really in decline
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1: Japan's Economy Has Grown
Nominal GDP
Year
Nominal GDP
2013
¥514 trillion
2026 (forecast)
¥677 trillion
Growth: about +32%
Key Point
The economy did not grow by only 10%.
Nominal GDP increased by roughly one-third over this period.
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2: Stocks and GDP Measure Different Things
GDP Measures
Domestic production
Consumption, Investment
Economic activity inside Japan
Stock Prices Measure
Future profits, nvestor expectations
Overseas earnings
Interest rates, Exchange rates
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Therefore
A stock market can rise much faster than GDP.
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A British Comparison
Think about the FTSE 100.
Many large British firms earn substantial profits overseas.
As a result:
FTSE performance ≠ UK household prosperity
The same applies to Japan.
Corporate profits and domestic growth are not identical.
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3: Japan Had 25 Years of Very Low
Inflation: Approx. 1998-2021
Japan experienced:
Low inflation, Weak wage growth
Weak investment growth
Slow nominal GDP growth
Consequence
People became accustomed to:
Saving money instead of
Investing money
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4: Inflation Returned After 2022
For many years:
Inflation was near 0%
After the pandemic:
Supply shortages emerged
Energy prices rose
Global inflation accelerated
Result: Japan finally moved above:
The Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target
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Fact 5: Japanese Companies Became Global
Over recent decades, many manufacturers expanded abroad.
Examples include:
Overseas factories
Overseas sales
Overseas investment
Result
Corporate profits increased
But
Domestic investment did not always increase at the same pace.
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6: The Weak Yen Boosted Profits
After 2022:
United States
Interest rates exceeded 5%
Japan
Near-zero interest rates
This widened the interest-rate gap.
Result
Stronger dollar /
Weaker yen
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Why a Weak Yen Helps Stocks
A weaker yen increases the value of overseas earnings when
converted back into yen.
For global companies this means:
Higher reported profits
Better earnings forecasts
Rising stock prices
Important
Higher profits do not automatically mean higher GDP.
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What Economists Watch Now
The key indicators are:
Business investment
Wage growth
Consumer spending
Productivity
Nominal GDP growth
These matter more than stock prices alone.
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The Positive Cycle Japan Wants
A healthier economy may follow this path:
Inflation
Wage Growth
Consumer Spending
Business Investment
Economic Growth
Higher Productivity
This is the cycle policymakers hope to create.
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Is Japan Finished?
Challenges
Aging population
Falling birth rate
Labour shortages
Weak investment history
Strengths
Advanced technology
Global companies
Large domestic market
Significant overseas assets
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Conclusion
Japan faces serious challenges.
However, the evidence does not support the claim that:
“
“ "Japan is finished."
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Final Takeaway
What We Know
GDP has grown,
Stocks and GDP are different
Inflation has returned
Corporate profits are strong
What Matters Next
Investment
Wage growth
Productivity growth
Rising living standards
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The Real Question
Not :
“
“ "Is Japan finished?"
But :
“
“ "Can Japan turn inflation and profits into long-term economic
growth?"
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